Our behavioral data analysis of Black Friday 2025 confirms Amazon’s continued dominance with 54% shopper reach, but consumers are diversifying, visiting more retailers than ever—38% visited long-tail retailers, up from 33% in 2024. Generative AI emerges as a purchase intent signal, with ChatGPT users showing 1.7x higher conversion rates. Black Friday shopping data also shows discretionary spending spikes as consumers enter "treat mode."
This analysis examines four key Black Friday trends: retailer consolidation patterns, consumer browsing behavior, AI's emerging role in shopping journeys, and category-level purchase patterns during peak shopping periods.
Black Friday remains a clear signal of peak retail behavior. In 2025, three shifts stand out.
First, consolidation and exploration are happening at the same time. Amazon reached 54% of shoppers, but 38% also visited long tail retailers, up from 33% in 2024. The average shopper visited three retailers instead of two.
Second, generative AI is emerging as an intent signal. ChatGPT usage tripled year over year, and shoppers transitioning from ChatGPT converted at 1.7x the rate of Google users and spent more per order.
Third, spending moved further into discretionary categories. Average order value on Amazon rose 32% versus early November, driven by electronics, beauty, and gifting. Together, these shifts define Black Friday 2025: dominant platforms, broader browsing, AI assisted intent, and stronger “treat mode” spending.
Some reports say Black Friday discounting started as early as November 16 this year, almost two weeks before the actual day. E-commerce visits grow steadily throughout November, with Black Friday remaining the peak shopping day—though the 5% increase from the week prior suggests the frenzy is more spread out than it once may have been. This tracks with broader industry findings that three-quarters of consumers now start holiday shopping before mid-November.
Even with earlier promotions, the concentration effect is clear. We measured the “Black Friday effect” by comparing the four days from Black Friday through Cyber Monday to a typical Friday to Monday in early November. Amazon’s reach rose from 47% to 54% of online shoppers, a six point lift unmatched by other retailers. Walmart, Temu, SHEIN, Target, Ulta, and Apple all saw smaller gains.
Black Friday still compresses attention and intent into a short window. Early sales may extend the season, but the biggest days continue to drive the largest shifts in reach, with Amazon leading both in total shoppers and incremental lift.
Black Friday reach concentrated among the top 10 online retailers: 78% of shoppers visited at least one of these retailers this year, similar to last year's 76%. There is still consolidation at the top.
But there’s evidence that consumers are branching out: this year, 38% visited long-tail retailers (those outside the top 50 most-visited sites), up from 33% in 2024. The typical shopper visits three online retailers (up from two last year), and 23% hit five or more sites (up three percentage points from last year and five points compared to a November baseline week).
Black Friday triggers variety-seeking behavior—something that long-tail social-media advertising and product discovery encourages.
ChatGPT use during Black Friday has tripled year-over-year: 9% of our panel used it during the event versus 3% in 2024. With Walmart's recent ChatGPT partnership and ChatGPT's new "buy now" feature, generative AI's role in shopping is a hot topic, and our data shows early signals of impact.
We looked at ChatGPT vs. Google transitions to Amazon Shopping. Though ChatGPT is more niche (Google has 57x the transitions), shoppers coming from ChatGPT show more intentional signals compared to Google transitions:
ChatGPT transitions outperform not just Google, but also TikTok, Instagram, YouTube, Facebook, and Snapchat in both conversion rates and average order values.
The volume is still small, but the behavior is there: Gen AI may be facilitating more intentional, higher-value shopping journeys.
On Amazon, the average order value jumps 32% during the Black Friday period, up to $32.37 compared to $24.50 during the early November baseline period. This is driven by a shift toward electronics, discretionary, and gifting categories.
Searches for "Nintendo Switch," "tablet," and "iPad" were up 2x, 3.2x and 3.5x respectively vs. early November levels. And that translated to purchases: electronics was the top-selling category outside of clothing, with toys, beauty, skincare, and kitchen appliances also gaining share. Meanwhile, more routine categories (books, personal care, automotive) declined.*
Black Friday gives shoppers permission to shift from routine purchases to hedonic consumption—treats, gifts, and upgrades that would otherwise feel extravagant. This aligns with the shifts we observed during Thanksgiving, with consumers increasing their order values.
Black Friday concentrates exploration and discretionary spending, but the pattern repeats beyond the holiday. Similar browsing spikes appear during product launches, payday weekends, and seasonal sales.
In these moments, shoppers visit more retailers and shift toward higher value, non essential categories. The same “treat mode” lift seen during Black Friday reappears when consumers feel permission to spend.
Spend totals show scale. Behavioral data shows decision making. Cross platform journeys and retailer switching provide earlier signals than revenue alone.
Three Black Friday findings brands can tap into year-round:
Black Friday is a case study in the blind spots behavioral data catches: cross-platform journeys and real-time purchase patterns expose opportunities invisible to first-party data and surveys.
*Note: Given the variability in Amazon's category tagging, we used product names to classify items into standardized categories.
Shoppers consolidated around major platforms while also expanding their consideration sets. Amazon’s reach rose to 54%, but 38% of shoppers visited long tail retailers, up from 33% in 2024. The average shopper visited three retailers instead of two. Spending also shifted toward discretionary categories, with Amazon’s average order value up 32% versus early November.
Black Friday encourages comparison. Promotions, social discovery, and competitive pricing push shoppers to evaluate multiple retailers before purchasing. This year, 23% of shoppers visited five or more sites, showing stronger variety seeking behavior rather than single site purchasing.
ChatGPT usage tripled year over year to 9% of the panel. While traffic volume remains smaller than Google, shoppers coming from ChatGPT showed higher intent. They stayed 46% longer, viewed more products, converted at 1.7x the rate, and spent 11% more per order compared to Google transitions.
Black Friday highlights when consumers enter exploration and “treat mode.” Similar patterns appear during launches, payday weekends, and seasonal sales. Brands can monitor browsing expansion, cross platform transitions, and discretionary category lifts to identify high intent moments beyond the holiday period.
Kate Jacobs is an Insights Analyst at RealityMine, where she works with the marketing and client-development teams to showcase the possibilities of RealityMine's data and support thought leadership. She also has a background in behavioural science and mixed-methodology research.
