Our behavioral data analysis of Black Friday 2025 confirms Amazon’s continued dominance with 54% shopper reach, but consumers are diversifying, visiting more retailers than ever—38% visited long-tail retailers, up from 33% in 2024. Generative AI emerges as a purchase intent signal, with ChatGPT users showing 1.7x higher conversion rates. Black Friday shopping data also shows discretionary spending spikes as consumers enter "treat mode."
This analysis examines four key Black Friday trends: retailer consolidation patterns, consumer browsing behavior, AI's emerging role in shopping journeys, and category-level purchase patterns during peak shopping periods.
Some reports say Black Friday discounting started as early as November 16 this year, almost two weeks before the actual day. E-commerce visits grow steadily throughout November, with Black Friday remaining the peak shopping day—though the 5% increase from the week prior suggests the frenzy is more spread out than it once may have been. This tracks with broader industry findings that three-quarters of consumers now start holiday shopping before mid-November.
Amazon dominates Black Friday. To measure the "Black Friday effect," we compared the four days of Black Friday through Cyber Monday to a typical Friday-Monday in early November. Amazon’s reach during this time climbs from 47% to 54% of online shoppers, a six-point lift unmatched by other retailers. Walmart, Temu, SHEIN, Target, Ulta, and Apple all show smaller gains. Amazon leads both in absolute terms (most shoppers) and incremental behavior (biggest Black Friday effect).
Black Friday reach concentrated among the top 10 online retailers: 78% of shoppers visited at least one of these retailers this year, similar to last year's 76%. There is still consolidation at the top.
But there’s evidence that consumers are branching out: this year, 38% visited long-tail retailers (those outside the top 50 most-visited sites), up from 33% in 2024. The typical shopper visits three online retailers (up from two last year), and 23% hit five or more sites (up three percentage points from last year and five points compared to a November baseline week).
Black Friday triggers variety-seeking behavior—something that long-tail social-media advertising and product discovery encourages.
ChatGPT use during Black Friday has tripled year-over-year: 9% of our panel used it during the event versus 3% in 2024. With Walmart's recent ChatGPT partnership and ChatGPT's new "buy now" feature, generative AI's role in shopping is a hot topic, and our data shows early signals of impact.
We looked at ChatGPT vs. Google transitions to Amazon Shopping. Though ChatGPT is more niche (Google has 57x the transitions), shoppers coming from ChatGPT show more intentional signals compared to Google transitions:
ChatGPT transitions outperform not just Google, but also TikTok, Instagram, YouTube, Facebook, and Snapchat in both conversion rates and average order values.
The volume is still small, but the behavior is there: Gen AI may be facilitating more intentional, higher-value shopping journeys.
On Amazon, the average order value jumps 32% during the Black Friday period, up to $32.37 compared to $24.50 during the early November baseline period. This is driven by a shift toward electronics, discretionary, and gifting categories.
Searches for "Nintendo Switch," "tablet," and "iPad" were up 2x, 3.2x and 3.5x respectively vs. early November levels. And that translated to purchases: electronics was the top-selling category outside of clothing, with toys, beauty, skincare, and kitchen appliances also gaining share. Meanwhile, more routine categories (books, personal care, automotive) declined.*
Black Friday gives shoppers permission to shift from routine purchases to hedonic consumption—treats, gifts, and upgrades that would otherwise feel extravagant. This aligns with the shifts we observed during Thanksgiving, with consumers increasing their order values.
Three Black Friday findings brands can tap into year-round:
Black Friday is a case study in the blind spots behavioral data catches: cross-platform journeys and real-time purchase patterns expose opportunities invisible to first-party data and surveys.
*Note: Given the variability in Amazon's category tagging, we used product names to classify items into standardized categories.
Kate Jacobs is an Insights Analyst at RealityMine, where she works with the marketing and client-development teams to showcase the possibilities of RealityMine's data and support thought leadership. She also has a background in behavioural science and mixed-methodology research.
